The bottom of amino acid market is anxious, where is the opportunity in 2019
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In 2018, the global scale of feed amino acid industry reached 5.23 million tons, an increase of 5.1% year on year, and the scale of China's amino acid industry reached 2.66 million tons, an increase of 21.4% year on year. Industry capacity continued to expand, oversupply intensified, market prices hit the bottom in an all-round way, and the profitability of amino acids dropped significantly.
In 2018, the average gross profit margin of the lysine industry is about 13%, 12% lower than that in 2017, and the lysine sulphate is at a stage loss. It is estimated that in 2019, the global lysine production capacity will be 4.95 million tons, the Chinese lysine production capacity will be 3.576 million tons, and the market price of lysine will be around the break even point. Can the new production increase on schedule?
In the second half of 2018, the global threonine price reached a new historical low, and the price of lysine hydrochloride continued to hang upside down, with the industry's loss increasing; it is estimated that in 2019, the global threonine production capacity will be 1715000 tons, and China's production capacity will be 1505000 tons. Under the pressure of oversupply, leading enterprises began to adjust the operating rate, seek multilateral cooperation and enhance the core competitiveness of the brand.
After the price of tryptophan bottomed out in the first half of 2018, some enterprises reduced the price and insured the price, the average gross profit rate of the industry decreased by 4 percentage points compared with that in 2017; tryptophan is in the process of transformation of import and export pattern, new production capacity of China will be put into production in 2019, the competition pattern tends to be scattered, the cost difference of each manufacturer is different, and the market change is more complicated.
In 2018, the price of methionine continued to fall in the first three quarters, reaching the bottom for the second time since 2017. In the fourth quarter, the rebound was only a flash in the pan. The starting rate of methionine industry continued to decline. There are still new production capacity put into production in 2019. Can the price reach a new low?
Under the background of large expansion of amino acid production capacity, amino acid prices continue to decline after the Spring Festival of 2019. At the same time, the amino acid industry is facing great changes at home and abroad in 2019, with repeated foreign trade frictions and challenges of RMB exchange rate appreciation; the domestic corn destocking has achieved results and the cost pressure has increased; the demand side is also faced with two major uncertainties, soybean meal prices have gone up and down, and the progress of low protein diets has been tortuous; the African swine fever has stirred up, the market expectation is consistent and pessimistic, and the whole industry chain has been destocked When to save?