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In depth analysis: Strategy of chemical industry in the second half of 2019
clicks:  1102        作者:未知
  • Development trend of global chemical industry

    In the first half of 2019, the macro uncertainty continued to increase, and the global chemical industry boom fell, but the regional differences were significant.

    Since 2007, under the background of global weak demand, central banks have repeated three rounds of "saving the economy with money"; after 14-15 years of trade contraction, the European and Japanese central bank's loose monetary policy, the US fiscal policy, China's housing reform monetization resettlement and PPP project help stimulate the strong growth of global economy in 16-18 years, and also make the chemical industry enter a two-year boom upward cycle. However, since 18q2, the global macro "headwind" has hit: including the suppression of regional trade by the typical events of anti globalization, such as brexit, Sino US trade war, etc., including the deceleration of the downstream end automobile and real estate related consumption of some major economies, as well as the increase of uncertainty brought by geopolitical events, crude oil prices and exchange rate fluctuations, which makes the society more cautious and willing to invest Decline; the three major parts of GDP are all under pressure, adding the strengthening of event pulse and inventory fluctuation (from July 2016 to October 2018, China's industrial manufacturing industry passively replenished inventory, and has since actively destocked), and the global industrial boom has declined accordingly.

    The new order index of global industrial PMI issued by IHS Markit can better reflect the change of industrial prosperity. Its value crossed the Kuo Rong line upward in June 2016, and then fell below the Kuo Rong line for the first time in October of 18 years 29 months later and has been fluctuating up to now (the latest value in May of 19 is 49.7). The index also has a strong guiding significance for the growth of revenue and the change of profitability of global chemical enterprises (characterized by global listed companies); world petrochemical conference 2019 points out that with the reduction of profit level, chemical industry revenue enters a stable period.

    By comparing the output growth of chemical products released by American Chemistry Council with the PMI of different economies in the world, it can be seen that the macro situation of "strong US and weak Europe" and the pressure of emerging economies has contributed to the pattern of global differences in chemical industry. After 18q2, the U.S. has become the economy with the highest manufacturing prospect in the world, and its chemical output growth rate is also ahead of the world; in 19q1, China's chemical output has become positive due to the gradual economic recovery, while Europe, represented by Germany, is facing a huge pressure of decline in the growth rate of chemical output.

    Financial policies, trade frictions, climate and other factors make the performance of different end consumer markets where chemicals are located different; globally, the construction industry is slightly stronger, the retail consumption is relatively stable (but the overall decline of automobiles), and the agricultural fluctuation is large.

    Chemicals, steel and non-ferrous metals are the most important raw materials for manufacturing industry, which are widely used in various industrial fields. In the report of the United Nations Environment Programme of 19 years, the chemical market was subdivided according to the industrial sector, among which architecture was the largest terminal application area (accounting for 35%), followed by electronics (accounting for 19%), and household (accounting for 8%), agriculture (accounting for 7%), paper packaging (accounting for 7%), automobile (accounting for 6%), medical treatment (accounting for 6%) and energy (accounting for 6%) were also the main application areas of chemical industry.

    From the perspective of long-term cycle, all terminal areas have vigorous development momentum. For example, the rapid urbanization in Asia and Africa will drive the rapid growth of global construction industry (18-23e CAGR = 3.5%), and the promotion of consumer electronics and scientific and technological progress will also drive the global electronic industry to continue to move forward (18-20e CAGR = 5.6%).

    However, in a short period of time, the global terminal market is faced with complex external environmental impacts, and the realization is not the same: the global construction industry as a whole is relatively strong, the contrast between European construction industry and manufacturing industry has become an economic highlight in the weakening real GDP, and the improvement of China's financial conditions has also promoted the recovery of the real estate sector. Although the American construction industry is subject to the rise of labor and material costs, the mortgage interest rate has declined Promote its growth on a month-on-month basis; retail consumption is slightly stable, but the overall automobile industry is declining, and the total retail sales in the United States, China and Germany are basically stable on a year-on-year basis, but the automobile industry in Germany and China has declined rapidly since 18q3, mainly due to the impact of the end of China's preferential policies on passenger vehicle purchase tax, the implementation of the European Union's wltp, the brexit and the imposition of tariffs in China and the United States; agriculture is volatile, with swine flu in Africa and extreme in the world The weather (such as El Nino phenomenon after the extreme cold in North America, which delayed the spring sowing of soybean and corn to record in recent years) and other factors have an impact.

    The impact of anti globalization increases the uncertainty and reduces the capital expenditure of overseas chemical industry.

    While the economic growth of each economy is slowing down, the anti globalization events such as brexit and Sino US trade war have intensified its fluctuation. With 75% of UK chemicals imported from EU and 60% of UK chemicals and drugs exported to EU, such close relationship makes European chemical trade in a dilemma after brexit if there is no sufficient time to prepare. After the three rounds of tariff confrontation between China and the United States, about 15 billion US dollars of chemicals and plastics exported by China to the United States were impacted, while about 11 billion US dollars of chemicals and plastics exported by the United States to China were also affected by the countervailing tariff, which caused the supply chain to be disrupted, the market to be cut off, and the chemical industry market of both sides to be affected. In 2018, the US chemical trade deficit with China expanded from US $1.4 billion to US $4 billion; the proportion of US imported raw materials reached 70%, while about 50% of us chemicals were exported to overseas branches of us enterprises, thus forming the form of exchange of overseas raw materials domestic processing overseas finished products sales; the establishment of trade barriers increased the cost of us chemical manufacturers and increased the cost of new items Project investment and the formation of new chemical industry employment.

    In addition to the impact on trade activities, anti globalization also has a negative impact on chemical industry investment. On the one hand, the restrictions on cross-border investment have increased in recent years, on the other hand, the increasing uncertainty (especially the recurrence of black swan event) has made overseas chemical enterprises more cautious, cross-border mergers and acquisitions have decreased (at a low level since the peak of 16 years), and the level of capital expenditure of chemical enterprises has decreased; 17h2 has been a global chemical sample since then Capex's year-on-year growth rate of listed companies maintained a negative growth trend.

    Due to the expected slowdown in demand growth, global industrial supply and demand may be relaxed in the next three years; however, in terms of segmentation, China's chemical industry will contribute to the main increase in the next few years, and state-owned, private and foreign-funded enterprises will play an important role.

    According to BASF's analysis and forecast, the growth rate of global chemical output in 2017, 2018 and 2019-2021e is 3.7%, 2.7% and 3.0%, respectively. Compared with the actual growth rate of global GDP in the same period of 3.6%, 3.7% and 3.5% (IMF forecast), the growth rate of global industrial capacity in the next three years will indeed increase, and the overall supply and demand of the industry will be relaxed (according to IHS Markit research, the growth rate of global basic chemical demand in the short term And GDP growth elasticity is about 1.5 times, but the long cycle will gradually stabilize and tend to be 1 times). However, in terms of segmentation, the global C2, C3 and chlor alkali industrial chains will maintain a high rate of industrial development, while the PX industrial chain's operating rate will be significantly reduced (IHS), while the emerging Asian markets will maintain the world's highest chemical production capacity growth and continue to increase (APIC 2018), and the high capital expenditure of the Asian chemical industry will promote its asset liability ratio to rise (Platts); the reason behind this is that private refining China's chemical industry represented by chemical and coal chemical projects will become an important contribution to the expansion of global chemical production capacity in the future.

    From the perspective of the main body, the state-owned, private and foreign-funded enterprises will play an important role in the development of China's chemical industry in the future. For state-owned enterprises, in the past 20 years, it has led the development of chemical industry, such as the world-class MDI construction of Wanhua chemical, Shanghai Huayi's entry into the tire and fluorine chemical industry from chlor alkali, etc.; looking forward to the future, the main challenges of state-owned chemical enterprises lie in maintaining the scale while improving the profits, facing the competition of private enterprises, dealing with the long-term development strategic conflict and the inherent organizational structure If the above challenges can be solved, the scale of SOEs will become their strong competitive advantage. For private enterprises


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